Who Gets the Queue Repriced First

Capacity got repriced once. It's about to happen again, and not to everyone.

Capacity prices already moved once. PJM: $28.92 per megawatt-day to $329.17, one auction cycle. That happened because the market caught up, at least partially, to how much queued capacity never converts to actual generation.

It’s going to move again. And every repricing event rewards whoever solved the underlying constraint before the market noticed it was the constraint, not after.

That’s the part most allocators in this space keep missing. The upside doesn’t accrue evenly across “AI infrastructure” as a category, the way it might if this were a simple beta bet on a growing sector. It accrues specifically to operators who had already cracked permitting and interconnection before capacity got repriced, because they’re the only ones positioned to deliver against demand at the new price. Everyone else is still explaining, politely, why their queue position slipped another year.

I watch this exact split play out every time I sit in a diligence conversation now. There’s a specific kind of allocator who gets to say, two years from now, “we saw this coming in 2026.” There’s another kind explaining to their investment committee why they didn’t.

Being early to solve interconnection isn’t a nice-to-have feature of a deal. It’s the entire trade. Everything else, financing terms, GPU generation, logo slides, is negotiable. Queue position solved ahead of the repricing curve isn’t negotiable, because you can’t retroactively clear a queue you haven’t cleared yet.

So: who already cleared it, and who’s still telling you they will?

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